.

Russia is expected to put its new rocket Soyuz-5 into space before the end of this year, Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov said in an interview.

“Yes, we are planning for December,” he told state media service TASS. “Everything is in place.”

The rocket will be launched from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan if the plans materialize. This would be its first flight, a project that has been in the works for over a decade. Roscosmos reportedly plans to conduct several demonstration flights of the Soyuz-5. However, it is unclear if and when the rocket will be fully operational, although officials have indicated that this may not be the case until 2028.

Soviet Roots in a Modern Era

Despite the name, the Soyuz-5 (Irtysh) is not a new and experimental design. The Russian rocket is rather an adaptation of older Soviet technology with the use of many previously proven technologies. The development of the Soyuz-5 started in 2016, when engineers began to use Soviet-era ideas but with a key difference: moving all production to Russian soil.

This is a significant development because for decades Russia was partially dependent on Ukraine for at least some of the rocket components. The most glaring example of this had been the Zenit-2 launch vehicle that was developed in the 1980s by the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The Zenit was launched into space many times, as recently as the 2010s. The first and second stages of Zenit were Ukrainian-made. The third stage was a Russian engine—the RD-171 from NPO Energomash.

Collaboration between Ukraine and Russia in the field of rocket production had lasted even after the Soviet Union’s collapse. The cooperation broke apart completely after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. By the end of 2023, Russia had even destroyed the factory in Ukraine where Zenit rockets had been built.

Soyuz-5 can thus be seen as a copy of Zenit that is larger in size and fully produced in Russia. The new rocket allows Moscow to end years of dependence on Ukrainian rocket parts.

What the Rocket Can Do

The Soyuz-5 is a medium-lift rocket. It has a capacity of about 17 metric tons to low-Earth orbit. The rocket has bigger fuel tanks than Zenit-2, thus allowing it to have a larger payload capacity.

The most important feature of the Soyuz-5 is the RD-171MV engine, which is located in the first stage of the rocket. This is the latest version of a Soviet engine that traces its roots back to the Energia program of the Soviet Union, the launch vehicle of the Buran space shuttle. The RD-171MV is a direct successor of the RD-171 engine that powered the Zenit rocket.

The difference is that no Ukrainian parts have been used in the newer engine. The RD-171MV burns kerosene and liquid oxygen. The thrust is enormous, over three times the power of a Space Shuttle main engine. In fact, it is today considered the most powerful liquid-fueled rocket engine in the world.

In terms of design, the rocket is expendable, unlike many of its competitors such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9, which has a reusable design. This is a serious disadvantage of the new rocket, as it is not clear how it will compete with reusable rockets in the long run.

Why Soyuz-5 Matters for Russia

Roscosmos has reportedly plans to replace both Zenit and the aging Proton-M rocket with the new Soyuz-5. Thus, this launch would provide a replacement for its foreign parts without the need to depend on external partners.

Russia’s space program has suffered from years of budget constraints, and the war in Ukraine has further drained resources. Yet it has managed to bring the Soyuz-5 near the launch stage.

Analysts believe that the Soyuz-5 is only a short-term solution. It will help keep the space industry afloat for now but will not advance Russian capabilities in any significant way. A larger leap would be the Soyuz-7 (Amur project), which would feature a reusable first stage and methane-powered engines. A completed project would be able to compete with modern rockets on an equal footing.

The problem is that Amur has faced major delays, with its first flight now not likely to happen before 2030. This means that Soyuz-5 will have to serve as a stopgap for at least the next several years.

The Commercial Question

It is not yet clear whether Soyuz-5 will have any customers outside of Russia. The global commercial market is already dominated by SpaceX, and China is also a strong competitor. They offer competitive prices, and in some cases, they are also reusable.

Russia will continue to rely on the Soyuz-2 for crewed spaceflights and on the Angara family of rockets for heavy payloads. Yet neither has been a success story in terms of attracting foreign business. If Soyuz-5 is to be commercially successful, it will need to prove itself to be both reliable and cost-effective, which are two fields where Russia has strong competition.

Looking Ahead

The upcoming test launch of Soyuz-5 is sure to be closely observed. Success in December would show that Russia is still able to develop new space hardware in spite of sanctions and a tight budget.

The Soyuz-5 may not be the most advanced rocket. But for Roscosmos, it is independence, continuity, and survival.